[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 25 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued at Very low levels on UT day
24 Dec with no significant solar flares. Active region 2692(N17E07)
remained relatively stable and quiet over the period. Very low
levels of solar flare activity ar expected for the next three
days (25-27 Dec) with a chance of C-class flares. No significant
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 24 Dec. As anticipated, solar wind speeds
showed the arrival of high speed solar wind stream from a negative
polarity coronal hole. Solar wind speed increased to 600 Km/s
at 1550 UT and is presently around 550Km/s. The Bz component
of the IMF varied between -10nT to + 15 nT with notable southward
excursions while Bt ranged between 5nT and 15 nT. Solar wind
speeds are expected to remain enhanced today, 25 Dec then trend
towards ambient levels over 26-27 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 22333421
Cocos Island 7 12223320
Darwin 11 22233412
Townsville 12 22333422
Alice Springs 12 22333422
Culgoora 10 12333322
Gingin 15 12333532
Canberra 10 32323321
Launceston 14 23434321
Hobart 12 22334321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 14 12234521
Casey 26 35643322
Mawson 23 34334354
Davis 29 33464344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1312 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
26 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Dec 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions reached Unsettled to Active levels
over the Australian region during 24 Dec. Isolated Minor storm
periods were observed over the Antarctic region. The disturbed
conditions were caused by the anticipated arrival of a negative
polarity coronal hole. Disturbed magnetic conditions are expected
to continue today, 25 Dec in response to the high speed streams
associated with the coronal hole. Possible Isolated Minor Storm
periods should notable southward Bz periods eventuate on today
25 Dec. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 26-27 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
26 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
27 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in
HF conditions are possible today, 25 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
26 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs observed across Aus/NZ regions over
the last 24 hours with slight enhancements across Niue Island
region. Incidence of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined
to Southern Australian regions. Moderately depressed MUFs are
expected on 25-26 Dec, following the disturbed observed on 24
Dec associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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