[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 17 issued 2335 UT on 23 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 24 10:35:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued at Very low levels on UT day
23 Dec with no significant solar flares. There is currently one
numbered solar region on the visible disk, region 2692(N17E05)
which has increased somehow in area and magnetic complexity but
remained relatively quiet. Very low levels of solar flare activity
ar expected for the next three days (24-26 Dec) with a chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 23 Dec. A filament eruption
observed in the Halpha imagery near (S30E05) starting at 0030UT,
it doesn't seem to have triggered a CME. The solar wind speed
remained near nominal levels. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between +/-6nT while Bt ranged between 3nT and 8nT. The three
days outlook, is for the solar wind speed to increase in response
to the arrival of a negative polarity coronal hole. The STEREO
satellite observed solar winds in excess of 550 km/s associated
with the approaching coronal hole. Similar solar wind intensity
levels are expected to occur at earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21221012
Cocos Island 2 11111011
Darwin 3 11211012
Townsville 5 21222112
Learmonth 5 21222112
Alice Springs 3 21211011
Culgoora 4 21211012
Gingin 5 21221022
Canberra 2 11211001
Launceston 6 22321112
Hobart 5 22221012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 11132011
Casey 15 43442122
Mawson 13 34332123
Davis 11 33333122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0100 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
25 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 23 Dec. Today, UT day 24 Dec, magnetic
conditions could reach Unsettled to Active levels due to the
influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. Disturbed magnetic
conditions are expected to continue over 25-26 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
26 Dec Normal-fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Dec -15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Propagation conditions has improved over the last 24
hours across Aus/NZ regions, ranging from Near predicted to slightly
enhanced MUFs. Notable depressed MUFs by 25% were observed for
Equatorial regions. Sporadic E blanketing also observed at times
across the Australian region. Similar conditions may be expected
to prevail today, 24 Dec followed by Minor to Moderate depressions
on the subsequent days, possibly beginning from 25 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 13300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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