[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 23 10:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued at Very low levels on UT day
22 Dec. Several B-Class flares were observed over the period
with the largest being a B7 flare at 0150UT. Region 2692(N18E20)
is the only numbered region on the visible solar disk and is
the source of all flares. This region showed further developement
but remains magnetically simple. Very low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three days (23-25 Dec), with
a chance of C-class flares. LASCO C2 satellite imagery observed
a faint CME after 0248UT likely associated with the flaring activity.
It is not expected to be geoeffective. No other earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day
22 Dec. The filament eruption observed yesterday (after 21/1800UT)
doesn't seem to have triggered a significant CME. As anticipated
the solar wind speed trended near the nominal levels of 300 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-3nT while Bt ranged
between 3nT and 5nT. A coronal hole is expected to influence
the solar wind speeds from late today, 23 Dec onwards. The STEREO
satellite observed solar winds in excess of 550 km/s associated
with the approaching coronal hole. Similar solar wind intensity
levels are expected to occur at earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 01100000
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 1 11110001
Learmonth 2 21010002
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Culgoora 1 10100001
Gingin 1 11000002
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11101001
Hobart 1 11100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 7 33321002
Mawson 6 11111214
Davis 5 22221102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1111 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
24 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
25 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 22 Dec. Conditions are expected to
remain Quiet until the arrival of a coronal hole high solar wind
stream, late today 23 Dec. Subsequently Unsettled to Active periods
are likely from late today onwards.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
25 Dec Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to slightly depressed MUFs observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec -20 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs observed across Aus/NZ regions with
Minor to Moderate depressions observed in the Niue Island region.
Sporadic E blanketing also observed at times across the Australian
region. Similar HF conditions with Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 398 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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