[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 December 17 issued 2333 UT on 21 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 22 10:33:59 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity continued at Very low levels on UT day
21 Dec, with no flares. There is currently one numbered solar
regions on the visible disk, region 2692(N18E35). This region
increased in area and magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours
but remained relatively quiet. Very low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three days (22-24 Dec), with
a chance of C-class flares. A large disappearing filament starting
after 21/1800 UT in a geoeffective location (near the centre
of the solar disk) but more imagery needs to be available and
analysed before taking any further conclusion. Possible impact
of this event on earth will be provided after the completion
of the model runs in tomorrows report. As anticipated the solar
wind speed trended near the nominal levels of 350 km/s. The Bz
component of the IMF ranged between +/- 5nT while Bt ranged between
2nT and 4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at nominal
levels today, 22 Dec. The tailing part of the previously elongated
coronal hole (that seems to have splitted in two parts) is expected
to influence the solar wind speeds from late 23 Dec onwards.
The STEREO satellite observed solar winds in excess of 550 km/s
associated with the approaching coronal hole. Similar solar wind
intensity levels are expected to occur at earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11122000
Cocos Island 1 10111000
Darwin 2 11112001
Townsville 4 11222011
Learmonth 2 00112001
Alice Springs 2 01122000
Culgoora 2 10122000
Gingin 2 10122000
Canberra 2 10122000
Launceston 3 11222100
Hobart 3 11222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 00032000
Casey 8 23332111
Mawson 8 32122213
Davis 62 95233121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1211 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 8 Mostly Quiet
23 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
24 Dec 20 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 21 Dec. Mostly Quiet conditions are
expected for 22 Dec. A renewed increase in the geomagnetic activity
from late 23 Dec onwards due due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal-fair Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to slightly depressed MUFs observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
23 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Dec -20 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs observed across Aus/NZ regions with
Minor depressions observed in the equatorial region. Sporadic
E blanketing also observed at times across the Australian region.
Similar HF conditions with Minor to Moderate MUF depressions
expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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