[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 18 10:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Dec 19 Dec 20 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 17 December,
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04W50) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (18-20 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 17 Dec. The solar wind
speed during UT day 17 December increased from ~375 km/s at beginning
of the UT day to 600 km/s by 17/1300 UT. The current solar wind
speed (17/2300) is near 600 km/s. These moderately enhanced solar
winds are due to arrival of the high speed streams from a recurrent
equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. During the UT day
17 December, the IMF Bt fluctuated between 7 nT and 13 nT. The
Bz component of IMF was between -7 nT and 7 nT, with a significant
period of southward Bz between 17/0330 UT and 17/0900 UT. The
two day outlook (18-19 Dec) is for the solar wind speed is to
start decreasing gradually as the effects of the coronal hole
begins to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 22333333
Cocos Island 12 22333332
Darwin 13 22333333
Townsville 14 22343333
Learmonth 18 32343443
Alice Springs 14 22333433
Norfolk Island - --------
Gingin 17 32333443
Camden 14 23333333
Canberra 10 22332322
Launceston 17 23333434
Hobart 14 23333333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
Macquarie Island 22 23444533
Casey 31 35544354
Mawson 59 44634766
Davis 41 34654464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0011 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
19 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 17-18 Dec. Magnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels across the Australian region during
the UT day, 17 December. Unsettled to minor storm conditions
were observed over the Australian Antarctic region. The disturbed
conditions were caused by the equatorial coronal hole. Today,
UT day 18 December, magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
unsettled and at times may reach active to minor storms levels
in response to the high speed streams associated with the coronal
hole
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed in all regions on UT day 17 December. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions in
high and mid latitude southern hemisphere regions are possible
today, 18 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Dec 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Dec -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec -30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 17 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian
regions. Moderately depressed MUFs are expected on 18-19 Dec,
following the disturbed observed on 17 December associated with
the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 19600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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