[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 December 17 issued 2343 UT on 18 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 19 10:43:00 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at Very Low levels on UT day
18 Dec, with no solar flares. There are currently no numbered
solar regions on the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar flare
activity are expected for the next three days (19-21 Dec). No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
C2 imagery on UT day 18 Dec. Solar wind speed remained enhanced
during 18 Dec under the influence of high speed solar wind stream
from a recurrent equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. The
Bz component of the IMF ranged mostly between +/-7nT while Bt
varied between +5nT and 10 nT. The two days(19-20 Dec) outlook
is for the solar wind speed to decrease gradually as the effects
of the coronal hole wanes. Although a renewed enhancement in
the solar wind speed may be observed on day 2 (20 Dec)if the
15 Dec CME associated the filament eruption impacts earth. An
other negative polarity coronal hole is expected to influence
the solar wind speeds from 21 Dec onwards.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 33333211
Cocos Island 9 222332--
Darwin 11 323331--
Townsville 13 333331--
Learmonth 13 333331--
Alice Springs 10 32333211
Gingin 12 323332--
Camden 13 33433221
Canberra 7 32332100
Launceston 12 33433211
Hobart 12 33433111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Dec :
Macquarie Island 31 336451--
Casey 34 465432--
Mawson 27 55443343
Davis 30 44553542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 66 (Active)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23 2254 3353
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible Active periods.
20 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
with some Active periods across the Australian region during
the UT day, 18 Dec. Minor storm conditions were observed over
the Antarctic region. The disturbed conditions were caused by
a recurrent equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. Today,
UT day 19 Dec, magnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
Quiet to Unsettled and at times may reach Active levels in response
to the moderately elevated solar winds emanating from the recurrent
equatorial positive polarity coronal hole. A renewed increase
in the geomagnetic activity from 20 Dec onwards due the possible
glancing blow from 15 Dec CME and another negative polarity coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Fair Fair Fair
20 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
21 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions ranging from near predicted monthly values
to depressed MUFs by 25% observed over the last 24 hours. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 54 was issued on 18 December
and is current for 18-19 Dec. Minor MUF depressions to near monthly
predicted MUFs were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day
18 Dec. Incidence of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined
to Southern Australian regions. Similar HF conditions with Minor
to Moderate MUF depressions expected for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 550 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 333000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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