[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 17 10:30:36 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Dec             18 Dec             19 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 16 December, 
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region 
on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04W36) and it remains relatively 
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is 
expected for the next three days (17- 19 Dec), with a weak chance 
of C-class flares. A 12 degree long disappearing filament starting 
around 15/1100 UT and centered near 26E33 seems to have triggered 
a CME first observed in the LASCO C2 imagery starting at 15/1400 
UT. Possible impacts of this event on earth will be provided after 
the completion of the model runs. The solar wind speed for most 
part of UT day 16 December trended near the nominal levels of 
350 km/s. However, since 16/2200 UT the solar wind has shown 
some evidence of enhancements possibly in response to the arrival 
of the effects from a recurrent equatorial positive polarity 
coronal hole. During the UT day 16 December, the IMF Bt was steady 
near 3 nT till 16/2100 UT and for the remaining apart of the 
UT day, the IMF Bt was near 9 nT. The Bz component of IMF was 
between -3 nT and 3 nT. The two day outlook (17-18 Dec) is for 
the solar wind speed to increase in response to the arrival of 
the recurrent equatorial positive polarity coronal hole effects. 
The STEREO satellite observed solar winds in excess of 550 km/s 
associated with the approaching coronal hole. Similar solar wind 
intensity levels are expected to occur at earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111102
      Cocos Island         2   11101102
      Darwin               2   11101012
      Townsville           3   01111013
      Learmonth            3   11111102
      Alice Springs        2   11101002
      Gingin               2   11101102
      Camden               6   22212212
      Canberra             1   00100002
      Launceston           5   12211103
      Hobart               3   12211002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   01111002
      Casey               11   34421012
      Mawson              10   22222143
      Davis                8   23322112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
 

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active
18 Dec    20    Active
19 Dec    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 15 December 
and is current for 17-18 Dec. Magnetic conditions were mostly 
at quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 
16 December. Today, UT day 17 December, magnetic conditions could 
reach active to minor storms levels due to the anticipated arrival 
of the corotation interaction region (CIR) associated with the 
equatorial coronal hole. Disturbed magnetic conditions are expected 
on continue on UT day 18 December as the high speed streams associated 
with the coronal hole becomes geoeffective.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs 
were observed in all regions. The outlook for today, 17 December, 
is for the MUFs to remain near monthly predicted levels over 
most regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Dec   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Dec     0    Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec   -20    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec   -30    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs 
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 16 December. Incidence 
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian 
regions. The outlook for today (17 Dec) is for the MUFs to remain 
near monthly predicted levels. Depressed MUFs are expected on 
18-19 Dec, post onset of disturbed periods anticipated to occur 
from today (17 Dec) associated with the coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 354 km/sec  Density:    7.5 p/cc  Temp:    23300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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