[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 17 10:30:36 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 16 December,
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04W36) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (17- 19 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. A 12 degree long disappearing filament starting
around 15/1100 UT and centered near 26E33 seems to have triggered
a CME first observed in the LASCO C2 imagery starting at 15/1400
UT. Possible impacts of this event on earth will be provided after
the completion of the model runs. The solar wind speed for most
part of UT day 16 December trended near the nominal levels of
350 km/s. However, since 16/2200 UT the solar wind has shown
some evidence of enhancements possibly in response to the arrival
of the effects from a recurrent equatorial positive polarity
coronal hole. During the UT day 16 December, the IMF Bt was steady
near 3 nT till 16/2100 UT and for the remaining apart of the
UT day, the IMF Bt was near 9 nT. The Bz component of IMF was
between -3 nT and 3 nT. The two day outlook (17-18 Dec) is for
the solar wind speed to increase in response to the arrival of
the recurrent equatorial positive polarity coronal hole effects.
The STEREO satellite observed solar winds in excess of 550 km/s
associated with the approaching coronal hole. Similar solar wind
intensity levels are expected to occur at earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11111102
Cocos Island 2 11101102
Darwin 2 11101012
Townsville 3 01111013
Learmonth 3 11111102
Alice Springs 2 11101002
Gingin 2 11101102
Camden 6 22212212
Canberra 1 00100002
Launceston 5 12211103
Hobart 3 12211002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01111002
Casey 11 34421012
Mawson 10 22222143
Davis 8 23322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
18 Dec 20 Active
19 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 17-18 Dec. Magnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day,
16 December. Today, UT day 17 December, magnetic conditions could
reach active to minor storms levels due to the anticipated arrival
of the corotation interaction region (CIR) associated with the
equatorial coronal hole. Disturbed magnetic conditions are expected
on continue on UT day 18 December as the high speed streams associated
with the coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed in all regions. The outlook for today, 17 December,
is for the MUFs to remain near monthly predicted levels over
most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
19 Dec -30 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 16 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian
regions. The outlook for today (17 Dec) is for the MUFs to remain
near monthly predicted levels. Depressed MUFs are expected on
18-19 Dec, post onset of disturbed periods anticipated to occur
from today (17 Dec) associated with the coronal hole.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 23300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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