[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 16 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 15 December,
with no solar flares. There is currently one numbered solar region
on the visible disk, region 2691 (S04W22) and it remains relatively
quiet and stable. Very low levels of solar flare activity is
expected for the next three days (16- 18 Dec), with a weak chance
of C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO C2 imagery on UT day 15 Dec. The solar wind
speed during UT day 15 December ranged from 350 km/s to 550 km/s.
The short-lived enhancements in the solar wind between 15/0800
UT and 15/2200 UT is possibly in response to the small equatorial
southern hemisphere coronal hole. The current solar wind speed
(15/2300 UT) is 370 km/s. During the UT day 15 December, the
IMF Bt ranged from 3 nT and 10 nT and the Bz component of IMF
was between -8 nT and 8 nT. The outlook for today (16 Dec) for
the solar wind speed to remain mostly near background levels.
>From late UT day 16 Dec or thereabout, the solar wind speed is
expected to increase again as a recurrent equatorial positive
polarity coronal hole reaches geoeffective location on the solar
disk. The STEREO satellite observed solar winds in excess of
550 km/s associated with the approaching coronal hole. Similar
solar wind intensity levels are expected to occur at earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 10122212
Cocos Island 2 10011111
Darwin 4 10122212
Townsville 5 11122222
Learmonth 6 10122223
Alice Springs 4 10122212
Norfolk Island - --------
Gingin 4 20022212
Camden 8 11233222
Canberra 2 00012111
Launceston 5 1-122222
Hobart 5 11122212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 00012011
Casey 13 34432112
Mawson 7 21223122
Davis 8 23322112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 8 Mostly Quiet and may reach active levels by the
end of UT day
17 Dec 20 Active
18 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 61 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 17-18 Dec. Magnetic conditions were mostly
at quiet levels across the Australian region during the UT day,
15 December. For UT day 16 December, the magnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at quiet levels and may reach active levels
by the end of the UT day. On UT 17 December, magnetic conditions
could reach active to minor storms levels caused by the corotation
interaction region (CIR) associated with the equatorial coronal
hole, which soon will be reaching geoeffective location on the
solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed in all regions. The outlook for today, 16 December,
is for the MUFs to remain near monthly predicted levels over
most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
18 Dec -20 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 15 December. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were mostly confined to Southern Australian
regions. The two day outlook (16-17 Dec) is for the MUFs to remain
near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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