[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 8 10:30:29 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last 
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this 
period. There is currently one sunspots on the solar disk visible 
from the earth. The solar wind stream stayed at moderate levels 
today (UT day 7 December) due to the effect of the recurrent 
positive polarity coronal hole from the northern hemisphere of 
the sun. Solar wind speed varied between around 475 km/s and 
560 km/s during the day today, showing a declining pattern towards 
the late hours of the day due to the waning of the coronal hole 
effect. The solar wind particle density mostly stayed just below 
the background levels. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly 
between +3/-5 nT. The Total IMF, Bt varied mostly between 1.5 
and 6 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken 
through 8 December. Very low levels of solar activity may be 
expected from 8 to 10 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12113221
      Cocos Island         5   11113211
      Darwin               5   12113211
      Townsville           7   22213221
      Learmonth            7   12113321
      Alice Springs        5   11113212
      Norfolk Island       6   11112223
      Gingin               6   12113222
      Camden               6   12213221
      Canberra             4   01103211
      Launceston           6   12113222
      Hobart               5   12103211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    10   11205311
      Casey               17   35433222
      Mawson              17   43323334
      Davis               17   34324324

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   3432 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     7    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec     4    Quiet
10 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at lower than anticipated 
levels today (UT day 7 December) across the Australian/NZ regions 
as Bz did not show any sustained periods of negative enough values 
while the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the 
recurrent positive polarity coronal hole continued to weaken 
further. Geomagnetic activity is expected to drop down further 
on 8 December and stay low after that. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to stay mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 8 December 
and then further decline to quiet and stay mostly at quiet levels 
on 9 and 10 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed on UT day 
7 December. Periods of minor MUF enhancements were also observed 
at some low latitude locations on this day. Spread F and Sporadic 
E blanketing were observed at several low and mid latitude locations. 
Minor to mild MUF depressions are possible on 8 December. HF 
conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels on 9 
and 10 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
  Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -5
Dec      4
Jan      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
09 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Minor to mild MUF depressions were observed across Aus/NZ 
regions on UT day 7 December. Periods of minor MUF enhancements 
were also observed at some northern locations on this day. Spread 
F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and 
mid latitude locations. Minor to mild MUF depressions are possible 
in the Aus/NZ regions on 8 December. HF conditions are expected 
to stay mostly at normal levels in this region on 9 and 10 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 546 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   357000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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