[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 December 17 issued 2332 UT on 08 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 9 10:32:02 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this
period. There is currently no sunspot on the solar disk visible
from the earth side. As anticipated, the solar wind stream weakened
further today (UT day 8 December) due to the continued waning
of the effect of the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole
from the northern hemisphere of the sun. Solar wind speed gradually
decreased from around 500 km/s to 400 km/s during the day today.
The solar wind particle density mostly stayed below the background
levels. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between
+/-3 nT. The magnitude of total IMF, Bt, varied mostly between
1 and 5 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken
through 9 December. Very low levels of solar activity may be
expected from 9 to 11 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12212111
Cocos Island 2 11211010
Darwin 3 11211111
Townsville 4 12212111
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 3 11211111
Norfolk Island 5 -3212011
Gingin 4 21222110
Camden 4 12212011
Canberra 2 01211000
Launceston 7 22322121
Hobart 4 12212111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 12222000
Casey 16 34533112
Mawson 12 23423223
Davis 15 23533113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2320 4312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 4 Quiet
10 Dec 4 Quiet
11 Dec 6 Mostly quiet, small possibility of some unsettled
periods
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today (UT
day 8 December) across the Australian/NZ regions as Bz did not
show any sustained periods of negative enough values while the
effect of the high speed solar wind stream from the recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole continued to weaken further. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet levels for the next
three days (9 to 11 December) with a small possibility of some
unsettled periods on 11 December due to a possible arrival of
high speed solar wind stream from a narrow recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed today
(UT day 8 December). Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing were
observed at several low and mid latitude locations. HF conditions
are expected to stay mostly at normal levels for the next three
days (9 to 11 December).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
11 Dec -8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 8 December). Spread F and Sporadic
E blanketing were observed at several low and mid latitude locations.
HF conditions are expected to stay mostly at normal levels in
this region for the next three days (9 to 11 December).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 287000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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