[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 7 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. No earthward directed CME was observed during this
period. There is currently one sunspots on the solar disk visible
from the earth. The solar wind stream showed weakening today
(UT day 6 December) as the effect of the recurrent positive polarity
coronal hole from the northern hemisphere of the sun started
declining a bit earlier than previously anticipated. Solar wind
speed showed a gradual decrease from 610 km/s to around 500 km/s
today. The solar wind particle density mostly stayed just under
the background levels. The Bz component of IMF varied mostly
between +/-5 nT. The Total IMF, Bt varied mostly between 2 and
5 nT today. Solar wind stream is expected to further weaken through
7 December. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected
from 7 to 9 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to unsettled
with some active periods
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 8 23222222
Cocos Island 5 22122121
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 9 23222223
Learmonth 9 23222232
Alice Springs 8 23222222
Norfolk Island 8 23321222
Gingin 8 22232231
Camden 9 23322222
Canberra 7 23221222
Launceston 13 34332232
Hobart 9 23322222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 24343221
Casey 20 45433232
Mawson 22 43433353
Davis 16 34433232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 24 3345 5433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
08 Dec 7 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 5 December
and is current for 6-7 Dec. Geomagnetic activity stayed at lower
than anticipated levels today (UT day 6 December) across the
Australian/NZ regions as the effect of a high speed solar wind stream
from a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole started weakening
earlier than what was anticipated and as Bz did not show any
sustained periods of negative enough values. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to drop down further on 7 December and stay low after
that. Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at quiet
to unsettled levels on 7 December with the possibility of some
active periods on this day and then decline to quiet to unsettled
levels on 8 December. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions may be
expected for 9 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 6 December. Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed
at several low and mid latitude locations. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions are likely to be observed during the next two
days (7 to 8 December), especially on mid- and high-latitude
locations. HF conditions may return to more normal levels on
9 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
08 Dec -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 52 was issued on 5 December
and is current for 5-7 Dec. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 6 December. Spread
F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed at several low and
mid latitude locations. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are
likely to be observed in the Aus/NZ regions during the next two
days (7 to 8 December). HF conditions may return to more normal
levels in this region on 9 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 549 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 333000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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