[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 December 17 issued 2335 UT on 03 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 4 10:35:55 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 DECEMBER - 06 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 32/0 48/0 18/0
COMMENT: Low solar activity and spotless solar disk continued
on 03 Dec. Very Low solar flare activity is expected to continue
for the next three UT days (04-06 Dec). No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 03
Dec. The solar wind speed further declined during 03 Dec and
is presently below 350 Km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
between -3 nT + 5nT, mostly neutral while Bt fluctuated around
5nT. The outlook for the next three days(4 -6 Dec) is for the
solar wind speed to be enhanced due to the onset of the corotating
interaction region and subsequent high solar stream associated
with a recurrent low latitude northern polar coronal hole. During
the previous rotation, this coronal hole produced daily average
solar winds in excess of 600km/s. Similar effect is expected
in this rotation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Dec : A K
Australian Region 0 00000001
Cocos Island 0 10000001
Darwin 0 00000001
Townsville 2 00110022
Learmonth 0 00000002
Alice Springs 0 00000001
Norfolk Island 1 110001-1
Culgoora 1 10000011
Gingin 0 00000002
Camden 2 10010021
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 01010001
Hobart 0 00010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 23210111
Mawson 10 21011135
Davis 5 22122112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0010 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Dec 40 Quiet to Minor Storm
05 Dec 45 Active to Minor Storm
06 Dec 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 2 December
and is current for 4-5 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
across the Australian region for 03 Dec. The outlook for the
next three days(04-06 Dec) is for Active to to Minor Storm magnetic
conditions with Major storm levels possible on 04-05 Dec. The
forecasted disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the
effects of the anticipated corotation interaction region and
subsequent high solar stream associated with the recurrent low
latitude northern polar coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Dec Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
06 Dec Fair-normal Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for today 04 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Dec -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Dec -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
to notable depressed MUFs by 25% for Equatorial/Northern AUS
regions were observed over the last 24 hours. Disturbed periods
observed for Mid to High latitudes over the past 24 hours. Noted
Spread F and Sporadic E blacketing during the UT day at most
locations which may have contributed to degraded HF conditions.
Similar, yet improving conditions may be expected to prevail
today, 04 Dec followed by storm-associated depressions on the
subsequent days, possibly beginning from 05 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Dec
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 32100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list