[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 3 10:30:44 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 02 Dec with
spotless solar disk. Very Low solar flare activity is expected
for the next three UT days (03-05 Dec). No earthward directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 02
Dec. The solar wind speed further declined during 02 Dec and
is presently around 375 Km/s. The Bz component of the IMF ranged
mostly between +/-3 nT mainly positive while Bt fluctuated around
5nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to further decline towards
ambient levels today, 03 Dec. From UT day 04 Dec, the solar winds
are expected to start enhancing again due to the onset of the
corotating interaction region and subsequent high solar stream
associated with a recurrent low latitude northern polar coronal
hole. During the previous rotation, this coronal hole produced
daily average solar winds in excess of 600km/s. Similar effect
is expected in this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11111311
Cocos Island 1 01010200
Darwin 4 11111301
Townsville 4 11111311
Learmonth 5 11121302
Alice Springs 3 11011301
Norfolk Island 4 11011321
Culgoora 4 11111311
Gingin 3 11010301
Camden 6 11013321
Canberra 1 00000201
Launceston 4 11111311
Hobart 4 11111311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 00000400
Casey 12 34322322
Mawson 7 32011232
Davis 14 22122444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1310 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 40 Quiet to Minor Storm
05 Dec 45 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 2 December
and is current for 4-5 Dec. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled across the Australian region for 02 Dec. Mostly
Quiet conditions forecast for 03 Dec. Quiet to Minor Storm magnetic
conditions are expected for 04-05 Dec with Major storm levels
possible. The forecasted disturbed magnetic conditions are in
response to the effects of the anticipated corotation interaction
region and subsequent high solar stream associated with the recurrent
low latitude northern polar coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 02 Dec.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today 03 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 0 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values in the Australian/NZ region. Notable nighttime depressions
of 30% were observed at Niue Island region. Sporadic E and Spread
F were also observed at times across the Australian region. Over
the next three days expect near predicted MUFs to minor enhancement.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 470 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 278000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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