[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 2 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 01 Dec. There
is currently no numbered solar region on the visible disk. Very
Low solar flare activity is expected for the next three UT days
(02-04 Dec). No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery on UT day 01 Dec. The solar wind speed
decreased from 550km/s to 450 km/s during 01 Dec. This is in
response to the waning effects of the southern hemisphere polar
extending negative polarity coronal hole. The Bz component of
the IMF ranged mostly between +/-5 nT while Bt fluctuated between
+4nT and 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to further decline
towards ambient levels over 02-03 Dec. From UT day 04 Dec, the
solar winds are expected to start enhancing again. This is because
another recurrent low latitude northern polar coronal hole is
approaching geoeffective location on the solar disk. During the
previous rotation, this coronal hole produced daily average solar
winds in excess of 600km/s. Similar effect is expected in this
rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22112221
Cocos Island 4 12001320
Darwin 6 22111321
Townsville 5 22112221
Learmonth 7 22111332
Alice Springs 6 22112222
Norfolk Island 5 12112221
Culgoora 5 22112221
Gingin 7 22112331
Camden 5 22112221
Canberra 5 22111221
Launceston 8 23212322
Hobart 7 23212221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 12112210
Casey 25 55532332
Mawson 21 34322361
Davis 33 34433471
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2311 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
04 Dec 40 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region for 01 Dec. Mostly Quiet conditions forecast
for 02-03 Dec. Quiet to Active magnetic conditions are expected
for 04 Dec with minor storm levels likely as another large low
latitude northern polar coronal hole approaches geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 01 Dec.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today 02 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E and Spread F were
also observed at times across the Australian region. Mostly near
predicted monthly values MUFs for 02-04 Dec. Possible minor enhancements
in MUFs for 04 Dec in response to anticipated increase in geomagnetic
activity associated with coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 468 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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