[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 1 10:30:29 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours and
is expected to remain so over the next three days. No earth directed
CMEs observed in LASCO C2 imagery on 30 Nov. The long filament
located in the southwest quadrant has rotated off the visible
solar disk quietly. Solar wind speed increased to about 525 Km/s
during 30 Nov and is presently around 450 Km/s due to the influence
of high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere polar
extending negative polarity coronal hole. The Bz component of
the IMF ranged mostly between +/-7nT with a southward excursion
up to -9 nT around 0130UT day while Bt fluctuated between +4nT
and 10 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain slightly
enhanced today, 01 Dec then trend towards ambient levels over
02-03 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 23123312
Cocos Island 6 22023301
Darwin 7 23123211
Townsville 10 23123323
Learmonth 8 22123312
Alice Springs 9 23123312
Norfolk Island 7 -3122222
Culgoora 9 23123312
Gingin 10 32123412
Camden 9 23223312
Canberra 6 23112202
Launceston 12 33223323
Hobart 9 23223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 33113412
Casey 25 45543323
Mawson 30 45333554
Davis 31 35343644
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1020 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 12 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Dec 5 Quiet
03 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across
the Australian region for 30 Nov. Quiet to Unsettled conditions
are expected for 01 Dec with possible Active periods due to the
effects of southern hemisphere coronal hole. Mostly Quiet conditions
forecast for 02-03 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
to notable depressed MUFs by 30% observed over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov -13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
02 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
for Equatorial region and notable depressed MUFs of 30% for Northern
AUS region observed over the last 24 hours. Sporadic E and Spread
F were also observed at times across the Australian region. Similar
conditions may be observed today,01 Dec. Mostly near predicted
monthly values MUFs for 02-03 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 67300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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