[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 December 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 5 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity stayed at very low levels over the last
24 hours. There are no sunspots on the solar disk visible from
the earth. As anticipated, the solar wind stream started getting
strong due to the effect of the positive polarity coronal hole
from the northern hemisphere of the sun. Solar wind speed stayed
under 320 km/s by 0900 UT and then showed a gradual increase
to around 370 km/s by 2300 UT. The solar wind particle density
also increased from the background levels of 10 ppcc to nearly
50 ppcc around 1500 UT. The particle density again dropped down
to the background levels around 2300 UT. The Bz component of
IMF varied mostly between +5/-8 nT by 1500 UT. Bz showed sustained
periods of negative values up to -12 nT between 0900 and 2000
UT and then turned positive. Bt varied mostly between 4 and 8
nT by 1500 UT and then rose to nearly 13 nT. Solar wind stream
is expected to continue to gain strength due to the effect of
the recurrent coronal hole through UT day 05 December. Very low
levels of solar activity may be expected from 5 to 7 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 9 11213333
Cocos Island 7 11112323
Darwin 8 11213323
Townsville 11 11213433
Learmonth 11 02213433
Alice Springs 9 11213333
Norfolk Island 7 11213322
Culgoora 9 01213333
Gingin 12 11213344
Camden 9 11213333
Canberra 8 01213332
Launceston 12 02324333
Hobart 9 01213333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 17 01135352
Casey 14 24423223
Mawson 13 12223443
Davis 10 12323323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 35 Unsettled to minor storm, isolated major storm
periods possible
06 Dec 40 Unsettled to minor storm, major storm periods
possible
07 Dec 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 59 was issued on 2 December
and is current for 4-5 Dec. Geomagnetic activity mostly stayed
at quiet to unsettled levels across Aus/NZ regions through the
UT day 4 December. Due to the effect of a high speed solar wind
stream from a positive polarity recurrent coronal hole,geomagnetic
activity may rise to minor storm levels on 5 December with a
small possibility of isolated major storm periods on this day.
Mostly unsettle to minor storm levels of geomagnetic activity
with the possibility of major storm periods may be expected for
6 December. Geomagnetic activity may drop down to unsettled to
active levels on 7 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Dec Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed on UT
day 4 December. Spread F and Sporadic E blanketing were observed
at several low and mid latitude locations. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions are likely to be observed i during the next three
days (5 to 7 December)
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -5
Dec 4
Jan 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
06 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
07 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 4 December. Spread F and Sporadic E
blanketing were observed at several low and mid latitude locations.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions are likely to be observed in
the Aus/NZ regions during the next three days (5 to 7 December)
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 47100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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