[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 29 09:30:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2672(N08W35) produced several B-class flares. Expect Very
Low to Low solar activity for the UT day, 29 August. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery up to 28/2048UT.
The solar wind stream was below nominal levels ranging between
270 km/s and 380 km/s. Bz was mostly negative during the last
24 hours, dipping to -7 nT. Btotal remained steady at around
7 to 8 nT during this period. Expect similar solar wind conditions
during the UT day, 29 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Cocos Island 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 01110000
Norfolk Island 2 21210000
Culgoora 0 00010000
Gingin 0 10010000
Camden 1 01110001
Launceston 1 10021000
Hobart 1 10021000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Casey 4 23211001
Mawson 10 22112125
Davis 5 32221011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2202 1342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet for the last 24 hours.
Expect the next two days to be Quiet to Unsettled. On 31 August
expect an increase to Unsettled to Active condition due to the
an increase in the solar wind speed induced by a recurrent coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours. Expect
similar conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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