[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 28 09:30:26 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Regions
2671(N13W93) produced a few B-class flares and today's(UT day
27 August) largest event, a C6.3 flare at 1516 UT. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last
24 hours. Today solar wind speed varied mostly between 320 km/s
and 370 km/s. Bz varied mostly between +7/-9 nT today with sustained
periods on the south side after 1300 UT, whereas Bt stayed mostly
between 6 and 10 nT during this time. Solar wind stream is expected
to remain mostly at the current normal levels for the next three
days (28 to 30 August) with a small possibility of minor enhancements
on 28 and 29 August. Very low to low levels of solar activity
may be expected over the next three days with further C-class
events possible and a slight chance of M-class activity on all
these days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 11121332
Cocos Island 5 11121131
Darwin 7 11121332
Townsville 8 22121332
Learmonth 8 11121342
Alice Springs 7 11121332
Norfolk Island 7 21221322
Culgoora 7 11121332
Gingin 7 10021342
Camden 7 11121332
Launceston 9 11122342
Hobart 7 10021342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
Casey 11 32322332
Mawson 22 42133355
Davis 8 3322221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1110 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet to unsettled levels
in Australian regions through the UT day 27 August. Quiet levels
of geomagnetic activity are expected to continue for the next
3 days (28 to 30 August) with the possibility of minor enhancements
to unsettled levels on 28 and 29 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values over the last 24 hours (UT day 27 August) with
some periods of minor depressions in some low latitude regions
and minor enhancements in mid to high latitude regions. Nearly
normal HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days (28 to
30 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours (UT
day 27 August) with some periods of minor depressions in the
northern regions and minor enhancements in the southern regions.
Nearly normal HF conditions are expected in the regions for the
next 3 days (28 to 30 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 41900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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