[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 28 09:30:26 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Regions 
2671(N13W93) produced a few B-class flares and today's(UT day 
27 August) largest event, a C6.3 flare at 1516 UT. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last 
24 hours. Today solar wind speed varied mostly between 320 km/s 
and 370 km/s. Bz varied mostly between +7/-9 nT today with sustained 
periods on the south side after 1300 UT, whereas Bt stayed mostly 
between 6 and 10 nT during this time. Solar wind stream is expected 
to remain mostly at the current normal levels for the next three 
days (28 to 30 August) with a small possibility of minor enhancements 
on 28 and 29 August. Very low to low levels of solar activity 
may be expected over the next three days with further C-class 
events possible and a slight chance of M-class activity on all 
these days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   11121332
      Cocos Island         5   11121131
      Darwin               7   11121332
      Townsville           8   22121332
      Learmonth            8   11121342
      Alice Springs        7   11121332
      Norfolk Island       7   21221322
      Culgoora             7   11121332
      Gingin               7   10021342
      Camden               7   11121332
      Launceston           9   11122342
      Hobart               7   10021342    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
      Casey               11   32322332
      Mawson              22   42133355
      Davis                8   3322221-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1110 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet to unsettled levels 
in Australian regions through the UT day 27 August. Quiet levels 
of geomagnetic activity are expected to continue for the next 
3 days (28 to 30 August) with the possibility of minor enhancements 
to unsettled levels on 28 and 29 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over the last 24 hours (UT day 27 August) with 
some periods of minor depressions in some low latitude regions 
and minor enhancements in mid to high latitude regions. Nearly 
normal HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days (28 to 
30 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug     8    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug     8    Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were mostly near predicted 
monthly values in the Aus/NZ region over the last 24 hours (UT 
day 27 August) with some periods of minor depressions in the 
northern regions and minor enhancements in the southern regions. 
Nearly normal HF conditions are expected in the regions for the 
next 3 days (28 to 30 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 345 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    41900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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