[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 23 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 24 09:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Aug 25 Aug 26 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several
B-class and four C-class flares were observed. Two of these C-flares
came from region 2671 and two from region 2672, the largest one
being a C2.2 flare at 1343 UT from region 2672 (N07E41). No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed varied mostly between 450 and 500
km/s during the UT day today (23 August) while Bz stayed mostly
negative up to around -7nT during this period. This resulted
in some periods of enhancements in geomagnetic activity to minor
storm levels. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the
next 24-48 hours. Low to moderate solar activity is expected
over the next three days (24 to 26 August) with further C-class
events possible and the chance of M-class activity on all these
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to minor
storm
Estimated Indices 23 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 22334441
Cocos Island 17 12234541
Darwin 14 22334431
Townsville 15 22334432
Learmonth 26 23345551
Alice Springs 15 12334441
Norfolk Island 13 23324331
Culgoora 16 22334441
Gingin 25 22355541
Camden 16 22334441
Launceston 24 23345542
Hobart 22 23335541
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Aug :
Macquarie Island 40 22556651
Casey 17 32323452
Mawson 70 55443866
Davis 39 33333666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 23 6532 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Aug 15 Quiet to active
25 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to prolonged periods of negative Bz and continued
enhancements in solar wind speed during the UT day today (23
August), geomagnetic activity increased to minor storm levels
in the Australian region. Geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced
to active levels on 24 August as the solar wind stream is still
going strong and Bz is still on the negative side. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to show gradual decline to unsettled levels
on 25 and then to quiet levels on 26 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor enhancements over the last 24 hours
(UT day 23 August). Nearly similar conditions are expected for
the next 3 days (24 to 26 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor enhancements in the Aus/NZ region
over the last 24 hours (UT day 23 August). Nearly similar conditions
are expected in the regions for the next 3 days (24 to 26 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 572 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 267000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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