[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 22 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 23 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Aug 24 Aug 25 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Several
B-class and three C-class flares were observed. All the C-flares
(C1.0 at 1113UT, C1.9 at 1750UT and C1.9 at 1937) came from region
2671 from its respective locations at N09W33, N09W37 and N10W38
at the time of these flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind speed increased from 560 km/s to nearly 640 km/s by 0700UT
today (UT day 22 August). The north-south component of IMF, Bz
stayed mostly negative up to around -9nT during this period.
This resulted in some periods of enhancements in geomagnetic
activity to active levels and some short periods of minor and
major geomagnetic storms. Solar wind then showed a gradual decrease to 490
km/s by 2300UT, while Bz stayed mostly between +/-4nT during
this period. Solar wind speed is expected to decline over the
next 24-48 hours due to waning influence of the coronal hole.
Low to moderate solar activity is expected over the next three
days (23 to 25 August) with further C-class events possible and
the chance of M-class activity on all these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 22 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 44323212
Cocos Island 10 33313212
Darwin 11 34323112
Townsville 12 44322122
Learmonth 16 45323113
Alice Springs 14 44323113
Norfolk Island 10 34322112
Culgoora 13 44323212
Gingin 13 34323213
Camden 14 44422212
Launceston 15 44333213
Hobart 12 34323212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Aug :
Macquarie Island 29 55545202
Casey 18 54333213
Mawson 59 67643446
Davis 45 66443446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 11 3333 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Aug 12 Quiet to active
24 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled
25 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Due to unexpected enhancements in solar wind parameters
during the first seven hours of the UT day today (22 August),
geomagnetic activity increased to active levels with some short
periods of minor and major storms. Geomagnetic activity may remain
enhanced to active levels on 23 August as the solar wind stream
is still going strong. Geomagnetic activity is expected to show
gradual decline to unsettled levels on 24 and then to quiet levels
on 25 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor enhancements over the last 24 hours.
Nearly similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days (23
to 25 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Aug 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Aug 18 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
25 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly
values with periods of minor enhancements in the Aus/NZ region
over the last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions are expected
in the regions for the next 3 days (23 to 25 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:38%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 7.6 p/cc Temp: 444000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list