[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 24 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 25 09:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              80/20              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Some 
B-class and two C-class flares were observed from region 2641, 
the largest one being a C3.0 flare at 0037 UT. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery over the last 
24 hours. Solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 450 
km/s to 360 km/s during the UT day today (24 August) while Bz 
stayed mostly negative up to around -5nT during the first half 
of the day and mostly positive up to +4nT during the second half 
of the day. Solar wind speed is expected to further decline over 
the next 24 hours. Low to moderate solar activity is expected 
over the next three days (25 to 27 August) with further C-class 
events possible and the chance of M-class activity on all these 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23323200
      Cocos Island         3   12-12200
      Darwin               5   12213201
      Townsville           9   23323301
      Learmonth            7   22223300
      Alice Springs        7   12323300
      Norfolk Island       7   23322200
      Culgoora             9   2332320-
      Gingin               7   12323300
      Camden               8   23323200
      Launceston          11   23433300
      Hobart              10   13433200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    30   15556300
      Casey                8   23323200
      Mawson              20   36443100
      Davis               10   33432200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             29   3543 5453     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Aug     6    Quiet
27 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: As anticipated, geomagnetic activity showed a gradual 
decrease to mostly quiet to unsettled levels through the UT day 
24 August. Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity 
on 25 August and quiet levels on 26 and 27 August may be expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values with periods of minor enhancements over the last 24 hours 
(UT day 24 August). Some periods of minor MUF depressions were 
also observed in some mid-latitude regions. Nearly normal HF 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days (25 to 27 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
  Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies were near predicted monthly 
values with periods of minor enhancements in the Aus/NZ region 
over the last 24 hours (UT day 24 August). Some periods of minor 
MUF depressions were also observed in the Southern Australian 
regions. Nearly normal HF conditions are expected in the regions 
for the next 3 days (25 to 27 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 474 km/sec  Density:    9.7 p/cc  Temp:   173000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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