[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 17 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 18 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 77/16 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2671 is the only active region on the solar disk visible
from the earth. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery during the last 24 hours. The previously anticipated
effect of the positive polarity coronal hole strengthened the
solar wind stream today. The solar wind speed gradually increased
from 410 to 590 km/s during the day. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz varied mostly between +7/-10 nT during this time,
whereas Bt varied between 7/13 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to remain elevated for 18-20 August due to the effect of this coronal
hole. Very low to low solar activity is expected over the next
three days (18 to 20 August) with further C-class events possible.
There may be a minor chance of M-class activity on 18 and 19
August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet to active,
isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 16 12444332
Cocos Island 11 11433232
Darwin 15 22444232
Townsville 16 12444332
Learmonth 21 22445343
Alice Springs 18 12454332
Norfolk Island 16 22345231
Culgoora 14 12344332
Gingin 20 22345343
Camden 18 12445332
Canberra 13 02344232
Launceston 24 22555332
Hobart 21 12455332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Aug :
Macquarie Island 33 11566441
Casey 16 34334232
Mawson 54 54554367
Davis 30 33443365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2111 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 25 Unsettled to active, minor storm possible
19 Aug 18 Unsettled to active, minor storm possible
20 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 16 August and
is current for 16-18 Aug. Quiet to active levels of geomagnetic
conditions with isolated minor storm periods, were observed across
the Australian region for the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity
for 18 and 19 August is expected to be mostly at unsettled to
active levels with possible minor storm periods due to the effect
of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream. Geomagnetic
activity may then gradually decline to unsettled to active levels
through 20 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
19 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were at normal levels on 17 August with
minor to moderate MUF enhancement periods. Mild to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 18 and 19 August. HF conditions are expected to stay at normal
levels on 20 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
19 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were at normal levels in Aus/NZ regions
on 17 August with minor to moderate MUF enhancement periods.
Mild to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
in the region may be expected on 18 and 19 August. HF conditions
are expected to stay at normal levels on 20 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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