[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 August 17 issued 2350 UT on 18 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 19 09:50:54 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 84/26 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. There
were two notable C-class flares observed with a C4.4 event at
2002UT that appears to have originated from the west limb and
a C2.9 event from region 2671 (N12E22). Region 2671 remains the
only active region on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery during the last
24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to the influence
of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar wind stream and
ranged between 525km/s and 661km/s over the UT day. The north-south
component of IMF, Bz fluctuated between -7nT and +6nT with some
minor sustained southward periods throughout the UT day. Solar
wind speeds are expected to remain elevated for the next 2-3
days. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected over the next
three days with further C-class events possible and slight chance
of M-class activity on 19Aug-20Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 33223332
Cocos Island 10 22223332
Darwin 12 33223332
Townsville 13 33323332
Learmonth 13 33223342
Alice Springs 12 32223342
Norfolk Island 11 33223232
Culgoora 12 33233232
Gingin 12 32223342
Camden 13 33233332
Canberra 9 22233231
Launceston 18 33334343
Hobart 16 33234342
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 31 33356452
Casey 33 44333373
Mawson 34 45444455
Davis 39 43433475
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 28 3255 5443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 16 Active
20 Aug 13 Unsettled to Active
21 Aug 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity with isolated
Active periods observed across the Australian region over the
past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Unsettled
to Active for 19Aug-20Aug due to continued coronal hole effects.
A decline in geomagnetic activity is expected on 21Aug to Unsettled
to Quiet conditions due to diminishing influence of the coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions over the last 24 hours with minor
to moderate MUF enhancement and depressions for Low to Mid latitudes.
Disturbed conditions for High latitudes. Mild to moderate MUF
depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
on 19Aug-20Aug. Improved HF conditions expected from 21Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with moderate MUF enhancements and depressions over the entire
region. Similar conditions are expected for the 19AUg-20Aug with
possible MUF depressions and enhancements for Equatorial/Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. MUFs expected to return to monthly predicted
values on 21Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 12.1 p/cc Temp: 267000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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