[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 August 17 issued 2350 UT on 16 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 17 09:50:08 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Region 2671 (N12E48) has grown in size over the last 2 days,
from 70 millionths on 15Aug to 460 millionths at the time of
this report. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery and after further analysis the C1.1 flare from
yesterday (1352UT 15Aug) was determined to be non-geoeffective.
The solar wind speed was at nominal values for the first half
of the UT day ranging from 340km/s to 380km/s. Solar wind velocity
increased in the latter half of the UT day and is currently 410km/s.
Total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) steadily increased over
the UT day from 3nT to 7nT at the time of this report with Bz
reaching -6nT. Expected increase in solar wind speed for 17Aug
due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a large
northern hemisphere located positive polarity coronal hole. Solar
wind speeds are expected to remain elevated for 18Aug-19Aug.
Very Low to Low solar activity is expected over the next three
with further C-class events possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21111211
Cocos Island 3 11111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 4 21111211
Learmonth 4 21111121
Alice Springs 3 20111211
Norfolk Island 4 22111111
Culgoora 3 11111211
Gingin 3 10110122
Camden 4 21111211
Canberra 0 10000100
Launceston 4 21111211
Hobart 3 10111211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 00121110
Casey 6 32221111
Mawson 16 43222235
Davis 6 22222211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1100 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 24 Active
18 Aug 22 Active
19 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 16 August and
is current for 16-18 Aug. Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed
across the Australian region for the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic
activity for 17Aug is is expected to be Quiet to Active with
possible Minor Storm periods due to the onset of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream. Active conditions
with possible Minor Storm periods for 18Aug and Unsettled to
Active conditions 19Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies where near predicted monthly
values for low to mid latitudes with notable enhancements. Disturbed
ionospheric support at times for high latitudes. Depressed MUFs
expected for high to mid latitudes on 17Aug-19Aug due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
19 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
40%
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. Some minor depressions
observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial stations, enhancements for
Southern AUS/NZ regions and continued disturbed ionospheric support
for Antarctic regions. Chance of enhancements for Equatorial/Northern
AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day for 17Aug. Possible
MUF depressions of approx -20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions to
Northern AUS regions in the latter half of the UT day 17Aug extending
through to 19Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Poor
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 17Aug-19Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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