[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 17 issued 2345 UT on 15 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 16 09:45:53 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Region
2671 (N12E65) was the source of numerous B-class and C-class
events, the largest being a C1.0 at 0215UT and C1.1 at 1352UT.
The latest C-class flare had an associated CME visible in LASCO
C2 imagery from 14UT onwards and appears to be mostly eastward
directed. The solar wind speed continued to decline from 476km/s
at 01UT to be 363km/s at the time of this report. The interplanetary
magnetic field north-south component (Bz) fluctuated between
+/-3nT over the UT day. An increase in solar wind speed is expected
on 17Aug due to the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream
from a large northern hemisphere located positive polarity coronal
hole. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected over the next
three with further C-class events possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100000
Cocos Island 1 0110----
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 1 11010001
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Norfolk Island 1 22000000
Culgoora 1 11100000
Gingin 1 11100000
Camden 1 11100000
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 1 11100001
Hobart 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 4 22110013
Davis 4 12211021
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3101 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 12 Unsettled
17 Aug 24 Active
18 Aug 22 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region for the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to mostly Quiet 16Aug with the chance of Unsettled to Active
periods in the latter half of the UT day, leading into the onset
of a recurrent coronal hole high-speed solar wind stream on 17Aug.
Active conditions with possible Minor Storm periods for 17Aug-18Aug
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal-poor Fair-poor
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies where near predicted monthly
values for low to mid latitudes. Disturbed ionospheric support
at times for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 24 hours with depressed MUFs expected for high to
mid latitudes on 17Aug-18Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values over the last 24
hours for the Australian/NZ region with periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs expected to remain
mostly near monthly predicted values for 16Aug. MUF depressions
of approx -20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions to Northern AUS regions
and poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions 17Aug-18Aug
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 484 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 307000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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