[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 17 issued 2348 UT on 14 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 15 09:48:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with three
C-class flares originating from the east limb where new region
2671 (N12E74) is currently located. The largest event recorded
was a C2.7 flare at 1046UT. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed declined
from a peak of 608km/s at 0040UT to be ~450km/s at the time of
this report. The interplanetary magnetic field north-south component
(Bz) ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. The solar wind parameters
are expected to trend towards ambient levels over the next 48
hours due to the waning influence of the small positive polarity
coronal hole located just south of the suns equator and near
the west limb. An increase in solar wind speed is expected around
the 16Aug-17Aug due to the influence of a larger northern hemisphere
located positive polarity coronal hole. Very Low to Low solar
activity is expected over the next three with further C-class
events possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 2 11101011
Townsville 3 21111012
Learmonth 3 11111111
Alice Springs 2 11101011
Norfolk Island 2 21011001
Culgoora 3 11101112
Gingin 4 21012121
Camden 4 21112112
Canberra 1 10001001
Launceston 4 21112112
Hobart 3 11012111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 10012011
Casey 9 34222111
Mawson 14 52112234
Davis 19 33322155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 2221 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 5 Quiet
16 Aug 12 Unsettled
17 Aug 20 Active
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed across the Australian
region for the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Quiet 15Aug. Unsettled to possible Active periods in the
latter half of the UT day for 16Aug due to the expected arrival
of high speed solar wind from a coronal hole. Active with possible
Minor Storm periods for 17Aug due to continuing coronal hole
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Fair-poor
17 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Maximum user frequencies where near predicted monthly
values for low to mid latitudes. Disturbed ionospheric support
at times for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days. Depressed MUFs for high to mid latitudes
on 17Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values over the last 24
hours for the Australian/NZ region with periods of disturbed
ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. MUFs expected to remain
near monthly predicted values for 15Aug-16Aug. MUF depressions
of approx -20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and Northern AUS regions
17Aug due to increased geomagnetic activity around this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 591 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 424000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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