[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 August 17 issued 2339 UT on 13 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 14 09:39:02 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 13 August,
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (14-16 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 13 August. The solar
wind speed remained enhanced over the last 24 hours, increasing
from around 550 km/s to 650 km/s, with occasional peaks of over
700 km/s, currently around 590 km/s. The IMF Bt decreased from
6 nT to 4 nT over the last 24 hours, currently around 5 nT. The
Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between approximately -5/+5
nT. The solar wind is expected to decrease on 14-15 August due
to the waning influence of two negative polarity coronal holes,
then increase on 16 August due to the influence of a northern
positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 4 22211011
Darwin 4 12211111
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 7 22322221
Alice Springs 4 12211121
Norfolk Island 4 21311110
Culgoora 4 12211111
Gingin 6 21312221
Camden 5 22212111
Canberra 2 11211010
Launceston 7 22322221
Hobart 6 22322111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 11222000
Casey 12 33432222
Mawson 44 74433256
Davis 26 43443236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 4421 1333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Aug 5 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active levels
later in the day
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 13 August. Quiet
to Active conditions were observed in the Antarctic region with
some storm periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet
to Unsettled on 14-15 August. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are
expected on 16 August with possible Active levels later in the
day due to the expected arrival of high speed solar winds from
a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Enhanced MUFs
occurred in the Niue Island and Southern Australian Regions during
the local night. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected
to remain near monthly predicted values during the next three
UT days, 14-16 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 571 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 435000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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