[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 13 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 13 AUGUST - 15 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Aug: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Aug 14 Aug 15 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 12 August,
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are
expected for the next three UT days (13-15 August) with a chance
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 12 August. The solar
wind speed increased over the last 24 hours from around 460 km/s,
with peaks of up to 770 km/s, currently around 590 km/s. The
IMF Bt reached a peak of 12.7 nT at 12/01:26 UT then decreased,
currently around 6 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between approximately -11/+9 nT. The solar wind is expected to
remain enhanced on 13-14 August due to the influence of two negative
polarity coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 33212021
Cocos Island 5 32211020
Darwin 7 33212121
Townsville 8 33212122
Learmonth 10 33313131
Alice Springs 7 33212022
Norfolk Island 6 33212011
Culgoora 7 33212021
Gingin 8 32213031
Camden 7 33212022
Canberra 4 22212011
Launceston 9 33213122
Hobart 7 33212121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 22212011
Casey 18 54422133
Mawson 32 46431164
Davis 38 44321276
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2211 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Aug 12 Quiet to Active
14 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active
periods
15 Aug 5 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 12 August and
is current for 12-13 Aug. Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to
Unsettled levels across the Australian region during the UT day,
12 August. Quiet to Active conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region with some storm periods. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to be Quiet to Active on 13 August, Quiet to Unsettled on 14
August with isolated Active periods, and mainly Quiet to Unsettled
on 15 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Aug 6 Near predicted monthly values
14 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
15 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
15%
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Enhanced MUFs
occurred in the Southern Australian Region during the local night.
MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected to remain near
monthly predicted values during the next UT day, 13 August, but
may have minor depressions on 14-15 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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