[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 August 17 issued 2341 UT on 11 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sat Aug 12 09:41:02 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 11 August, 
with no C-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next three UT days (12-14 August) with a chance 
for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the 
available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 11 August. The solar 
wind speed increased from 360 km/s to 485 km/s over the last 
24 hours. The IMF Bt increased from around 2 nT to 11 nT, currently 
around 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between approximately 
-7/+9 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced on 12-14 
August due to the impact of two negative polarity coronal holes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12011231
      Cocos Island         3   12101121
      Darwin               5   22101222
      Townsville           6   22012232
      Learmonth            5   22101231
      Alice Springs        4   12001231
      Norfolk Island       4   11211221
      Culgoora             5   12011231
      Gingin               4   11001231
      Camden               6   12011331
      Canberra             3   01001231
      Launceston           7   12022331
      Hobart               6   12012331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     4   03011220
      Casey               10   23322232
      Mawson              26   33212273

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1112 2102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug    14    Quiet to Active
13 Aug    12    Quiet to Active
14 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 11 August. Mainly 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet to Active 
on 12-13 August, and Quiet to Unsettled on 14 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
14 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Minor depressions 
in MUFs occurred in the Northern Australian Region during the 
local day. Some Minor enhancements in MUFs occurred in the Niue 
Island and Southern Australian Regions during the local night. 
Periods of sporadic E were observed throughout the Australian/NZ 
region. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected to remain 
near monthly predicted values during the next UT day, 12 August, 
but may have minor depressions on 13-14 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.