[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 04 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 5 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: On 4 August solar activity was very low. Mostly very
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three
UT days, 5-7 August with a chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT
day, 4 August. Due to arrived corotating interaction region,
the solar wind speed increased from 400 km/s to 730 km/s. The
maximum value of Bt, 21 nT, was observed at 0619 UT. Prolonged
periods with negative Bz up to -17 nT were observed between 0515
UT and 1250 UT. Then Bt gradually decreased to 5 nT. During the
next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to remain high due
to the coronal hole effect. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 04/1145 UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 17 24344332
Cocos Island 13 24332332
Darwin 16 24343332
Townsville 17 24344332
Learmonth 21 24444343
Norfolk Island 13 24333232
Gingin 21 23344452
Camden 14 23334332
Canberra 12 13333332
Launceston 19 13444433
Hobart 14 13334332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 34 12555643
Casey 25 23435534
Mawson 31 34554435
Davis 29 24463335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 2001 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 18 Active
06 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 3 August and
is current for 4-5 Aug. Magnetic conditions were mostly unsettled
to active across the Australian region during the UT day, 4 August,
due to arrival of the corotating interaction region associated
with the recurrent coronal hole. In Antarctica magnetic activity
reached minor to major storm levels. During the next UT day,
5 August, the geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at
unsettled levels with isolated periods with active levels. Isolated
periods with minor storm levels are also possible. Then the geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline. In the SWS magnetometer data
for 04 Aug, a weak (11 nT) impulse was observed at 0333UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours, with mild enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere
and mild depressions in the high latitude regions in the Northern
Hemisphere. For 5-6 August, MUFs near predicted monthly values
and minor enhancements are expected in the Southern Hemisphere.
Mild depressions are expected in the high and mid latitude regions
in the Northern Hemisphere. Degraded HF conditions are expected
for 5 August as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 9 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly enhanced
MUFs were also observed in the Southern Australian region during
local night. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected to
remain near monthly predicted values during the next three UT
days, 5-7 August. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 5 August
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 140000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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