[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 August 17 issued 0333 UT on 06 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 6 13:33:55 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
SWS APOLOGIES FOR THE LATE ISSUSE OF THE DAILY REPORT. THIS IS DUE TO COMPUTURE
FAILURES IN OUR FORECASTING CENTRE.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 5 August,
with no flares. There is currently one numbered sunspot region
on the visible solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days (6 - 8 August) with a
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery for the UT day 5 August. The solar
winds were at very high levels during the last 24 hours, fluctuating
between 650 km/s and 750 km/s. These elevated winds are caused
by high speed streams emanating from a positive polarity coronal
hole. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 5 nT during the UT day.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated between -3 nT and +3 nT.
The two day outlook (6-7 August) is for the solar winds to remain
at elevated levels as the coronal hole effects are expected to
persist for few more days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 23323332
Cocos Island 5 122-----
Darwin 7 23222221
Townsville 11 23313332
Learmonth 12 23323332
Norfolk Island 8 23312222
Gingin 12 22324332
Camden 12 23323332
Canberra 9 13312331
Launceston 14 23423333
Hobart 14 23433332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 21 25434432
Casey 34 44324663
Mawson 54 66544565
Davis 55 44543676
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 57 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 3444 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 11 Unsettled
07 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly near unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 5 August. Active
to minor storms conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
These disturbed conditions were due to high speed solar wind
streams emanating from the positive polarity coronal hole. During
the next UT day, 6 August, the geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at unsettled levels with isolated periods with active
levels
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild
depression were observed in the mid and high latitude regions
of the Northern Hemisphere. Similar HF conditions are expected
to today, 6 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. Mildly enhanced
MUFs were also observed in the Southern Australian region during
local night. MUFs in the Australian/NZ region are expected to
remain near monthly predicted values during the next three UT
days, 5-7 August. Degraded HF conditions are expected for 5 August
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 650 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 545000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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