[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 17 issued 2332 UT on 03 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 4 09:32:25 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: On 3 August solar activity was very low. Active region
2670 produced B-class flares. Mostly very low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 4-6 August
with a chance for C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 3 August.
Up to 3 Aug/0935 UT the solar wind speed was low, varying in
the range 360-380 km/s, and the IMF Bt was steady near 3-4 nT.
At 0935 UT a week shock wave was observed, followed by a corotating
interaction region. The solar wind speed increased and reached
its maximum value of 425 km/s at 2046 UT. The maximum value of
Bt, 18.1 nT, was observed at 2308 UT. After 1320 UT there were
periods with prolonged negative Bz reaching -8 nT. During the
next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to increase further
due to the coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 11011323
Cocos Island 4 01011223
Darwin 6 11011323
Townsville 7 11121323
Learmonth 7 01012333
Norfolk Island 6 22010323
Gingin 7 01001433
Camden 6 11011323
Canberra 4 00010322
Launceston 7 00011433
Hobart 5 00011422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 8 00001522
Casey 19 22212643
Mawson 44 22111585
Davis 32 12212575
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 4 1001 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 29 Active
05 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 3 August and
is current for 4-5 Aug. Magnetic conditions were mostly quiet
across the Australian region during the UT day, 3 August. Due
to arrival of the corotating interaction region associated with
the recurrent coronal hole, during the last 9 hours of the day
magnetic activity reached unsettled to active levels in the Australian
region and minor to severe storm levels in Antarctica. During
the next UT day, 4 August, the geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at active levels with periods with minor storm levels.
Isolated periods with major storm levels are also possible. Then
the geomagnetic activity is expected to decline.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours. For 4-5 August, MUFs near predicted monthly
values and minor enhancements are expected in the Southern Hemisphere.
Mild depressions are expected in the high latitude regions in
the Northern Hemisphere. Degraded HF conditions are expected
for 4-5 August as a consequence of the increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 9 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in this region
are expected to remain near monthly predicted values during the
next three UT days, 4-6 August. Degraded HF conditions are expected
for 4-5 August due to increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 8.0 p/cc Temp: 218000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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