[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 3 09:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: On 2 August solar activity was very low. The returned
active region 2655 (now its number is 2670) produced three B-class
flares. Mostly very low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next three UT days, 3-5 August with a chance for C-class
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery for the UT day, 2 August. The solar wind speed
was low to moderate during the UT day, 2 August, varying in the
range 370-440 km/s. The IMF Bt and its Bz component varied in
the ranges 3-10 nT and +6/-5 respectively. The Bz component of
the IMF was mostly positive during the UT day, 2 August. During
the next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to remain at low
to moderate levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11112200
Darwin 3 12112101
Townsville 3 11112201
Learmonth 3 11013200
Alice Springs 2 01102101
Norfolk Island 2 12102100
Gingin 3 11102210
Camden 2 11112100
Canberra 1 10002100
Launceston 4 11113200
Hobart 3 10103200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 00002100
Casey 5 22212211
Mawson 9 11112125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 6 1112 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 6 Quiet
04 Aug 25 Active
05 Aug 25 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 2 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 3 August. During the next 2 UT days,
4-5 August, the geomagnetic activity may increase to active levels
due to expected arrival of the corotating interaction region
associated with the recurrent coronal hole. Isolated periods
with minor storm levels are probable.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected for 3 August.
Degraded HF conditions are expected for 4-5 August due to predicted
increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 7 Near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 9 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. MUFs in this region
are expected to remain near monthly predicted values during the
next three UT days, 3-5 August. Degraded HF conditions are expected
for 4-5 August due to predicted increase in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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