[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 2 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: On 1 August solar activity reached low level due to
a C-class flare, which was produced by returning active region
2655 and peaked at 0747 UT. Mostly low levels of solar activity
are expected for the next three UT days, 2-4 August with a chance
for an M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 1 August. The solar
wind speed was very low at the beginning of the UT day, 1 August.
It reached its minimum value of 310 km/s at 0450 UT, then due
to expected coronal hole effects it increased and reached its
maximum value of 460 km/s at 1355 UT, currently at 440 km/s.
The IMF Bt was steady near 5-6 nT up to 0450 UT. Then it varied
in the range 4-11 nT and reached its maximum value near 1720
UT. The Bz component of the IMF varied in the range -4/+7 nT
and was mostly positive during the UT day, 1 August. During the
next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 01222100
Darwin 4 12222100
Townsville 4 11222101
Learmonth 3 00222100
Alice Springs 3 01222100
Norfolk Island 5 22222101
Gingin 2 00212000
Camden 3 01222101
Canberra 3 00221---
Launceston 4 00232100
Hobart 3 00222100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
Macquarie Island 7 00152000
Casey 4 12212110
Mawson 9 32412112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 NA
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 6 Quiet
04 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 1 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 2 August. The forecasted unsettled
conditions are due to coronal hole effects. During the next two
UT days, 3-4 August, geomagnetic activity is expected to decline
to quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression
were observed in the high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 2 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Aug 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 10
Aug 6
Sep 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted
values during the next three UT days, 2-4 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 341 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 18600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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