[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 August 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Aug 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 2 09:30:21 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 AUGUST 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              76/14              78/17

COMMENT: On 1 August solar activity reached low level due to 
a C-class flare, which was produced by returning active region 
2655 and peaked at 0747 UT. Mostly low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 2-4 August with a chance 
for an M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
the available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 1 August. The solar 
wind speed was very low at the beginning of the UT day, 1 August. 
It reached its minimum value of 310 km/s at 0450 UT, then due 
to expected coronal hole effects it increased and reached its 
maximum value of 460 km/s at 1355 UT, currently at 440 km/s. 
The IMF Bt was steady near 5-6 nT up to 0450 UT. Then it varied 
in the range 4-11 nT and reached its maximum value near 1720 
UT. The Bz component of the IMF varied in the range -4/+7 nT 
and was mostly positive during the UT day, 1 August. During the 
next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 01 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   01222100
      Darwin               4   12222100
      Townsville           4   11222101
      Learmonth            3   00222100
      Alice Springs        3   01222100
      Norfolk Island       5   22222101
      Gingin               2   00212000
      Camden               3   01222101
      Canberra             3   00221---
      Launceston           4   00232100
      Hobart               3   00222100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     7   00152000
      Casey                4   12212110
      Mawson               9   32412112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   NA     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug     6    Quiet
04 Aug     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were quiet across the Australian 
region during the UT day, 1 August. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected for 2 August. The forecasted unsettled 
conditions are due to coronal hole effects. During the next two 
UT days, 3-4 August, geomagnetic activity is expected to decline 
to quiet levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression 
were observed in the high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 2 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      10
Aug      6
Sep      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values
04 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions 
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted 
values during the next three UT days, 2-4 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 341 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    18600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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