[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 1 09:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 31 July.
Mostly low levels of solar activity are expected for the next
three UT days, 1-3 August, due to returning active region 2655,
which is expected to produce C-class flares and with a chance
for an M-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available LASCO imagery for the UT day, 31 July. The solar
wind speed was very low, varying in the range 320-360 km/s and
the IMF Bt was mostly steady near 4-6 nT during the UT day, 31
July. The Bz component of the IMF varied in the range -3/+4 nT.
During the next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to increase
due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01011001
Darwin 1 21000001
Townsville 2 11111002
Learmonth 0 01010000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Norfolk Island 1 12-01000
Gingin 1 01100100
Camden 1 01011001
Canberra 0 00001000
Launceston 2 01012101
Hobart 1 01011000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 00022000
Casey 4 13111110
Mawson 5 12111123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4 1
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 30 July and
is current for 31 Jul to 1 Aug. Magnetic conditions were quiet
across the Australian region during the UT day, 31 July. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 1 August. These
forecasted disturbed conditions are due to the anticipated arrival
of the corotating interaction region associated with a recurrent
equatorial coronal hole. During the next two UT days, 2-3 August,
geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to quiet levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Mild depression
were observed in the high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
Similar HF conditions are expected for today, 1 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 9
Jul 8
Aug 7
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region. HF conditions
in this region are expected to remain mostly nearly monthly predicted
values during the next three UT days, 1-3 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 187000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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