[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 28 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 29 09:30:15 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 28 April,
with no notable flares. Very low level of solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (29 April - 1 May) with a chance for C-class
flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
satellite imagery on UT day 28 April. The solar wind speed continued
to decline towards the nominal level over the last 24 hours,
decreasing from 470 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 430
km/s by the end of UT day, as the effect of the coronal hole
continued to fade. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT during the
UT day. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and +3 nT, with
some prolonged periods of southward Bz. These intervals of southward
Bz were from 28/0345 UT to 28/0900 UT and from 28/1415 UT to
28/2330 UT. During the next 24 hours the solar wind speed is
expected to trend towards nominal levels as the effect of the
coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 01111112
Cocos Island 2 1-100211
Darwin 3 11111111
Learmonth 5 00222222
Alice Springs 3 01111122
Norfolk Island 4 10111222
Culgoora 3 01111112
Gingin 4 00112222
Camden 4 01212112
Canberra 2 00111111
Launceston 5 01222212
Hobart 4 01222111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 00322110
Casey 10 34212222
Mawson 25 53322246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 2330 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 7 Quiet
30 Apr 6 Quiet
01 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 28 April. The Earth
is now under the influence of moderate solar wind. Mostly quiet
and at times unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days
29 April - 1 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the
low and mid latitude regions on the UT day 28 April. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 29 April - 1
May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 28 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. The outlook for
the next three UT days (29 April - 1 May) is for near monthly
predicted MUF levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 336000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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