[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Apr 28 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 79/19 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 27 April,
with no notable flares. Very low levels of solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days (28-30 April) with a chance of
C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the
available satellite imagery on UT day 27 April. The solar wind
speed continued to decline towards nominal level over the last
24 hours, decreasing from 525 km/s at the beginning of the UT
day to 450 km/s by the end of UT day, as the effect of the coronal
hole continue to fades. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT during
the UT day. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and +4 nT,
with some prolonged periods of southward Bz. These intervals
of southward Bz were from 27/0330 UT to 27/0700 UT and from 27/1640
UT to 27/1800 UT. The two day outlook (28-29 April) is for the
solar winds to continue to trend towards nominal levels as the
effect of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 12200010
Cocos Island 2 12200010
Darwin 2 12200010
Learmonth 3 12200020
Alice Springs 2 12200010
Norfolk Island 2 12200010
Culgoora 2 12210010
Gingin 2 11200020
Camden 4 12310011
Canberra 2 12200010
Launceston 5 12311111
Hobart 3 02311010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 13301000
Casey 9 33321122
Mawson 27 44522263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3232 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr 6 Quiet
30 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 27 April. Sporadic unsettled
magnetic conditions were experienced in the Antarctic regions.
The Earth is under the influence of moderate solar wind speed
from a recurrent,negative polarity coronal hole, which is causing
the unsettled magnetic conditions. Mostly quiet and at times
unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 28-29 April
as the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the
low and mid latitude regions on the UT day 27 April. Mild depressions
occurred over the high latitude regions. Similar MUF conditions
are expected for today, 28 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 27 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over most Australian regions. Mild depressions
occurred over the Antarctic regions as the ionosphere continues
to recover from the earlier disturbed magnetic conditions associated
with the coronal hole. The outlook for the next two days (28
and 29 April) is for near monthly predicted MUF levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:39%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 530 km/sec Density: 12.8 p/cc Temp: 478000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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