[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 26 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Apr 27 09:30:24 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              81/22              81/22

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 26 April, 
with only B-class flares. Very low levels of solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days (27-29 April) with a chance of 
C-class flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the 
available satellite imagery on UT day 26 April. The solar wind 
speed continued to decline towards nominal level over the last 
24 hours, decreasing from 600 km/s at the beginning of the UT 
day to 500 km/s by the end of UT day, as the effect of the coronal 
hole continue to fades. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT during 
the UT day. The Bz component varied between -4 nT and +4 nT. 
The two day outlook (27-28 April) is for the solar winds to continue 
to trend towards nominal levels as the effect of the coronal 
hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222221
      Cocos Island         4   21202211
      Darwin               5   21222220
      Learmonth           10   22223332
      Alice Springs        6   22222220
      Norfolk Island       5   21212221
      Culgoora             6   22222221
      Gingin               8   21222332
      Camden               8   22322321
      Canberra             6   21222221
      Launceston          11   22333331
      Hobart               9   12323321    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    10   32332321
      Casey               14   44422222
      Mawson              36   44432664

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3323 3242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were from quiet to unsettled levels 
across the Australian region during the UT day, 26 April. Sporadic 
active conditions were experienced in the Antarctic regions. 
The Earth is still under the influence of moderately high solar 
wind speed from a recurrent,negative polarity coronal hole, which 
is causing these unsettled magnetic conditions. Mostly quiet 
to unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 27-28 April 
as the coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the 
low and mid latitude regions on the UT day 26 April. Mild depressions 
occurred over the high latitude regions. Similar MUF conditions 
are expected for today, 27 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values
29 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 26 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the equatorial and low latitude regions. 
Mild depressions occurred over the mid- and high-latitude Australian 
regions. The outlook for the next two days (27 and 28 April) 
is for similar MUF gradients.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:35%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 598 km/sec  Density:   10.9 p/cc  Temp:   495000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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