[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Apr 26 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 81/22 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 25 April,
with only B-class flares. The strongest was B7.2 flare occurring
at 25/2025 UT. Very low levels of solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (26-29 April) with chance of C-class flares.
Our model runs for the 24 April CME that was triggered by an
eruptive filament indicate that this CME could cause a weak glancing
blow at earth on 28 April or thereabout. No earthward directed
CMEs were observed on UT day 25 April. The solar wind speed continued
to decline towards nominal level over the last 24 hours, decreasing
from 650 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to 550 km/s by the
end of UT day, as the effect of the coronal hole slowly fades
away. The IMF Bt was steady near 5 nT during the UT day. The
Bz component varied between -4 nT and +4 nT. The two day outlook
(26-27 April) is for the solar winds to continue to trend towards
nominal levels as the effect of the coronal hole wanes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22233221
Cocos Island 6 11223121
Darwin 8 12233221
Learmonth 13 22235321
Alice Springs 8 12233221
Norfolk Island 6 22232111
Culgoora 8 22233221
Gingin 12 22234332
Camden 9 22333221
Canberra 7 11233220
Launceston 11 22334221
Hobart 9 22333221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
Macquarie Island 25 22465331
Casey 16 34433232
Mawson 41 65433555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 22 4444 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
27 Apr 12 Unsettled
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were from quiet to unsettled levels
across the Australian region during the UT day, 25 April. Active
conditions were experienced in the Antarctic regions. The Earth
is still under the influence of moderately high solar wind speed
from a recurrent,negative polarity coronal hole, which is causing
these moderately disturbed magnetic conditions. Mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 26-27 April
as the coronal hole effects wane. Isolated active conditions
are possible on 26 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values in the
low latitude regions on the UT day 25 April. Mild depressions
occurred over the mid and high latitude regions. Similar MUF
conditions are expected for today, 26 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 25 April, MUFs were enhanced over the
equatorial and low latitude regions. Mild depressions occurred
over the mid-latitude and southern Australian regions. The outlook
for the next two days (26 and 27 April) is for similar MUF gradients.
The southern and mid-latitude degradations of MUFs are due to
the storm induced ionospheric depression, extending from the
polar into the mid-latitude regions. MUFs to expect recover to
mostly near monthly predicted level by 28 April
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 690 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 659000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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