[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sun Apr 30 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Apr 01 May 02 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 29 April,
with no notable flares. Very low level of solar activity is expected
for the next 3 UT days (30 April - 2 May) with a chance for C-class
flares. No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
satellite imagery on UT day 29 April. The solar wind speed were
near the nominal level of 400 km/s throughout the UT day. The
IMF Bt fluctuated between 5 nT and 8 nT during the UT day. The
Bz component varied between -7 nT and +4 nT. Bz had been mainly
southwards for the last 7 hours of the UT day. The two day outlook
(30 April - 1 May) is for the solar winds to remain near the
nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11212022
Cocos Island 4 11211022
Darwin 3 01211021
Learmonth 5 12221022
Alice Springs 3 01211022
Norfolk Island 7 11322222
Culgoora 4 11212022
Gingin 7 12212033
Camden 5 11312022
Canberra 2 01211011
Launceston 6 12322022
Hobart 6 12312022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 11332011
Casey 13 34421033
Mawson 25 42332165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1221 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Apr 6 Quiet
01 May 6 Quiet
02 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 29 April. Mostly quiet
and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days
30 April - 1 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal Normal
02 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the
UT day 29 April. Similar conditions are expected for today 30
April
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Apr 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Apr 16 Near predicted monthly values
01 May 19 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: For the UT day, 29 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly
predicted levels over the Australian region. The outlook for
the next three UT days (30 April - 2 May) is for near monthly
predicted MUF levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 247000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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