[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 13 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Apr 14 09:30:17 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 13 April.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next 3 days with a slight
chance of C-class flares. No Earthward directed CMEs observed
today based on LASCO imagery up to 13/1536UT. The solar wind
speed varied between 455 to 400 km/s and is currently 455 km/s.
The IMF Btotal was near 5 nT for most of the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF varied between -/+5nT during the last 24 hours. Expect
the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11002221
Cocos Island 2 11-01120
Darwin 3 11102211
Townsville 4 11102221
Learmonth 2 01002120
Alice Springs 3 11002221
Norfolk Island 2 01002111
Culgoora 5 3-002211
Gingin 4 01002230
Camden 3 11002221
Canberra 1 00002110
Launceston 3 11002221
Hobart 3 01002221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 00002110
Casey 6 23202121
Mawson 25 23312173
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3322 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Apr 4 Quiet
15 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Mostly Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 13 April. Expect Mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed in the Northern
Australian region during the UT day 13 April. Near predicted
MUFs to Minor depressed MUFs expected to continue for the next
three days. Observed periods of sporadic E over Darwin.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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