[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 17 issued 0020 UT on 15 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 15 10:20:39 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 14 April.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next 2 days with a slight
chance of C-class flares. Expect a possible increase in solar
activity on 17 April with the return of active region 2644. A
CME on the west limb was observed via SOHO LASCO C2 imagery beginning
at 13/1800UT and STEREO A imagery at 13/1739UT, it was determined
to be on the farside of the Sun. No Earthward directed CMEs observed
today based on LASCO imagery up to 14/2048UT. The solar wind
speed varied between 455 to 360 km/s and is currently 370 km/s.
The IMF Btotal ranged between 5-8 nT during the UT day and is
currently ~5nT. The Bz component of the IMF remained negative,
reaching -6nT, for most of the UT day resulting in weak reconnection
with the Earth's magnetic field. Expect the solar wind speed
to remain at nominal levels until late on the 16 April UT day.
At this time expect an increase in the solar wind speed due to
a coronal hole becoming geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 12223221
Cocos Island 5 12222121
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 6 12123221
Alice Springs 7 12223222
Norfolk Island 6 12123221
Culgoora 7 12223221
Gingin 9 22223331
Camden 7 12223221
Canberra 6 02123221
Launceston 8 22233221
Hobart 7 12223221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
Macquarie Island 13 03244420
Casey 8 22222232
Mawson 42 46543365
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1100 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr 12 Unsettled
17 Apr 20 Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the
Australian region during the UT day, 14 April. Expect these condition
to prevail until late on the UT day 16 April, when geomagnetic
activity is likely to increase due a coronal hole becoming geo-effective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
17 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed in the Northern
Australian region during the local day, 14 April. Near predicted
MUFs to Minor depressed MUFs expected to continue for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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