[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 12 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Apr 13 09:30:18 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 12 April.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next 3 days with a slight
chance of C-class flares. No Earthward bound CMEs observed today
based on LASCO imagery up to 12/1936UT. The solar wind speed
ranged between 500 to 400 km/s and is currently 420 km/s. The
IMF Btotal varied between 1 to 5 nT, currently 4nT. The Bz component
of the IMF varied between -5/+3 nT during the last 24 hours.
Expect the solar wind speed to remain at nominal levels today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21110000
Cocos Island 1 21100000
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 3 22220001
Learmonth 2 21110000
Alice Springs 2 21110000
Norfolk Island 4 22220011
Culgoora 3 22120000
Gingin 2 12110000
Camden 3 21220000
Canberra 1 11110000
Launceston 3 22221000
Hobart 3 11220002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Apr :
Macquarie Island 4 12320000
Casey 8 43321000
Mawson 9 43321102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 1123 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Apr 4 Quiet
14 Apr 4 Quiet
15 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 12 April. Expect Mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Apr 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
14 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed during local
night in the Northern Australian region during the UT day 12
April. Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressed MUFs expected to
continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 166000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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