[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Wed Apr 12 09:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 11 April.
Expect Very Low solar activity for the next 3 days with a slight
chance of C-class flares. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME
beginning at 2312UT on the NE limb. This CME may have a glancing
blow on 15 April, pending further analysis. There was a solar
sector boundary crossing at approximately 1245UT. The solar wind
speed increased from 390 to 500 km/s over the last 24 hours with
the increase occurring after the SSB crossing. The IMF Btotal
varied between 8 to 2 nT with the minimum occurring at the boundary
change. Btotal is currently around 3nT. The IMF Bz component
of the IMF varied between +6/-7 nT during the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 11232231
Cocos Island 6 11222230
Darwin 6 11222231
Townsville 7 11232231
Learmonth 6 11222231
Alice Springs 8 1--32231
Norfolk Island 6 00232231
Culgoora 7 11232231
Gingin 8 11232331
Camden 7 11232231
Canberra 6 00232230
Launceston 10 11342231
Hobart 8 01242231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
Macquarie Island 15 00362230
Casey 17 33432252
Mawson 33 23342275
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2001 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 6 Quiet
13 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet to Unsettled across the
Australian region during the UT day, 11 April. Expect Quiet to
Unsettled conditions to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
14 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed during local
day in the Northern Australian region during the UT day 11 April.
Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressed MUFs expected to continue
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 426 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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