[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 April 17 issued 2334 UT on 10 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 11 09:34:04 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 10 April.
Expect Very Low activity for the next 3 days. An erupting filament
was observed commencing around 09/2025UT centered at N16E35,
there was an associated CME first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
at 10/0136UT. The CME is not expected to be Earthward bound.
Additional CME activity was observed at 09/1836UT and 10/1948UT
on the west limb and 10/1325UT and 10/1948UT on the NE limb.
These CMES were faint and appeared to be due to activity on the
farside of the Sun and are not expected to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed varied between 460 to 410 km/s over the last
24 hours. The IMF Btotal varied between 9 to 3 nT and is currently
around 6 nT. The IMF Bz component was mostly northward with a
very brief period of -1 nT during the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 21111011
Cocos Island 3 21111101
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 5 31111112
Learmonth 3 31000011
Alice Springs 3 21111111
Norfolk Island 2 21010011
Culgoora 3 21111011
Gingin 4 31101111
Camden 3 21111011
Canberra 0 20000000
Launceston 4 22111021
Hobart 2 21100010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 20000120
Casey 6 33211011
Mawson 8 31013313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21 4633 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 6 Quiet
12 Apr 4 Quiet
13 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly Quiet across the Australian
region during the UT day, 10 April. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal
12 Apr Normal Normal Normal
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
12 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
13 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs observed over the Australian
region with only Minor MUF depressions observed during local
night in the Northern Australian region during the UT day 10
April. Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressed MUFs expected to
continue for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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