[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 17 issued 2343 UT on 02 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 3 09:43:51 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.3 0803UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.3 1301UT possible lower European
M2.1 1838UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M5.7 2033UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 97/44
COMMENT: High levels of solar activity were observed during the
last 24 hours. Elevated background x-ray flux continues, currently
above the C level. Region 2644(N12W52) was the source of four
M-class flares and region 2645(S10W23) produced several C-class
flares. Available imagery is currently limited (large data gap)
and analysis to determine if the flaring activity is associated
with Earthward directed CMEs is pending receiving more satellite
imagery however based on the location of events it may have Earth
direct components. Further analysis of yesterday M4 event at
01/2148UT from region 2644 showed that it was associated with
a type IV radio sweep and a CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 01/2150UT, however is not expected to be geo-effective.
Region 2645 is the largest, beta_gamma magnetic class and maintains
high flare potential and region 2644 has increased in length
and spot count and is now classed as beta -gamma magnetic class,
expect Moderate solar activity with slight chance of an X-class
flare over the next three days due to the flaring potential of
regions 2644 and 2645. As anticipated, the solar wind speeds
continue decreasing from ~550 km/s at the beginning of the UT
day to ~450 km/s by the end of the UT day. The IMF Bt was steady
near 4 nT throughout the UT day. The Bz component varied between
-4 nT and +2 nT. The solar winds are expected to continue to
trend towards nominal levels over the next 24 hours as the coronal
hole effects continue to wane. A small positive coronal hole
may slightly increase the solar wind speeds on day 2, 04 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11212210
Cocos Island 2 10112200
Darwin 4 11212201
Townsville 6 21213211
Learmonth 5 21213200
Alice Springs 3 11212200
Norfolk Island 5 11212222
Culgoora 3 11212200
Gingin 6 21213310
Canberra 3 11212200
Launceston 8 22323310
Hobart 6 11213310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 6 11313210
Casey 7 32322210
Mawson 22 53332444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 14 3243 3422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 7 Mostly Quiet
04 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind
stream from the recurrent coronal hole has shown further weakening
through the UT day today, 02 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were
mostly Quiet in the Australian region with some Unsettled periods.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at Quiet levels
today 03 Apr and may reach Unsettled to levels day 2, 04 Apr
due to another small positive polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australia.
Possible short wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
Australia on 02 Apr with some minor depressions. Brief periods
of sporadic-E and Spread F were observed at some locations. Improvement
in MUFs may be experienced over the next few days due to increased
X-rays flux. Periods of sporadic-E may be observed in some locations
during the forecast period. Possible short wave fadeouts over
the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 599 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 355000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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