[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 April 17 issued 2332 UT on 01 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 2 09:32:45 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.4 2148UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 102/50 100/48
COMMENT: The X-rays flux has gone above the M-levels over the
UT day ,01 Apr. Several B-class one C3.7 and M4.4 flares were
observed. One more C-flare is heading towards the peak while
this report is being written. The M4 flare peaked at 2148UT and
came from region 2644(N12W52). This region is in a geoeffective
position and a CME could be associated with the M4 flare, but
more imagery needs to be available and analysed before taking
any further conclusions about it. Expect Moderate solar activity
over the next three days due to the flaring potential of regions
2644 and 2645. As anticipated, the solar wind speeds decreased
gradually from ~700 km/s at the beginning of the UT day to ~550
km/s by the end of the UT day. The IMF Bt was steady near 4 nT
throughout the UT day. The Bz component varied between -4 nT
and +2 nT. The solar winds are expected to continue to trend
towards nominal levels over the next few days as the coronal
hole effects begin to wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 22333422
Cocos Island 8 21222421
Darwin 12 22333422
Townsville 12 22333332
Learmonth 16 32333522
Alice Springs 13 22333432
Norfolk Island 10 22332322
Culgoora 11 22333322
Gingin 14 32333432
Canberra 10 21333321
Launceston 16 32443332
Hobart 15 22443421
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 30 42654511
Casey 18 34343423
Mawson 42 53443566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25 5545 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 15 Quiet to Active
03 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: As anticipated, the effect of the high speed solar wind
stream from the recurrent coronal hole has shown weakening through
the UT day today, 01 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet to
Unsettled in the Australian region with some Active periods.
Solar winds associated with the coronal hole are expected to
continue decreasing over the next few days. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to range mostly from Quiet to Unsettled levels and
occasionally may reach Active levels in the high latitude regions
over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australia.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 15
May 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values across
Australia on 01 Apr with some minor depressions. Brief periods
of sporadic-E and Spread F were observed at some locations. Improvement
in MUFs may be experienced over the next few days due to increased
X-rays flux. Periods of sporadic-E may be observed in some locations
during the forecast period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 683 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 422000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list