[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Sat Apr 1 10:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 93/38 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 31 March. Region
2645(S10E01) appear to have increased somewhat in area and magnetic
complexity but produced only minor C-class flares. Expect Low
solar activity over the next three days with a slight chance
of M-class flares due to the flaring potential of region 2645.
No Earthward CMEs observed in available SOHO LASCO imagery. The
solar wind speed remains elevated around 700 km/s due to a high
speed stream associated with a recurrent coronal hole. The IMF
Bt was steady over the last 24 hours at approximately 5nT. The
IMF Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. During the next 24 hours
the solar wind speed is expected to gradually decrease but it
will remain enhanced.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 17 33443323
Cocos Island 20 23633322
Darwin 15 33443222
Townsville 20 34453223
Learmonth 23 33454334
Alice Springs 19 33453323
Norfolk Island 15 33443222
Culgoora 17 33443323
Gingin 23 33354344
Canberra 14 33343322
Launceston 23 34454333
Hobart 21 33454323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
Macquarie Island 46 35575523
Casey 29 45543344
Mawson 62 65554467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 31
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 17 3442 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 20 Unsettled to Active
02 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The Earth is still under the influence of Strong solar
wind streams from a large coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity
was Unsettled to Active with one isolated Minor Storm period
across the Australian region. Solar winds associated with the
coronal hole are still at elevated levels but expected to decrease
over the next few days. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to
range mostly from Unsettled to Active levels and occasionally
may reach Minor Storm levels in the high latitude regions over
the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australia.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Conditions for HF radio wave propagation strengthened
throughout the Australian region during 31 Mar UT. MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values across Australia on 31 Mar
with some minor depressions. Niue Island had enhanced MUFs during
local day. Brief periods of sporadic-E and Spread F were observed
at some locations. Conditions are expected to be near predicted
monthly values during the next three days. Minor MUF depressions
may persist over the next 24 hours. Periods of sporadic-E may
be observed in some locations during the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 634 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 330000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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