[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 April 17 issued 2338 UT on 03 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 4 09:38:52 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0105UT possible lower West Pacific
M5.8 1429UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity High High Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 102/50 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours, the
largest event being an M5 X-ray flare from region 2644 (N12W75),
peaking at 1429/03 UT. A CME associated with this event does
not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 2645 (S10W37) grew and
produced several C-class flares. High activity is possible on
4-5 Apr, with low activity likely 6 Apr, as region 2644 departs
the solar disk. The solar wind speed declined from around 450
km/s, currently around 400 km/s, but might reverse this trend
from late 4-Apr due to coronal hole effects. The IMF total strength
peaked around 7 nT, currently 3 nT. The Bz component varied between
+/-3nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11112100
Cocos Island 2 0111----
Darwin 3 1111----
Townsville 4 2111----
Learmonth 2 0111----
Alice Springs 2 01112100
Norfolk Island 2 10112000
Culgoora 2 01112100
Gingin 3 1111----
Canberra 1 01011100
Launceston 5 12123201
Hobart 2 01022100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 0101----
Casey 9 2232----
Mawson 9 21212234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 73 (Active)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 5 Quiet
05 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were
quiet on 3-Apr and are likely to remain so on 4-Apr, possibly
reaching unsettled levels 5-6 Apr due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 11
Apr 14
May 14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 3
April and is current for 3-4 Apr. Some mild MUF depressions were
observed in the north. MUFs were otherwise near to monthly predicted
values. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:39%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 212000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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