[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 28 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 29 09:30:23 EST 2016
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Sep 30 Sep 01 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 83/24 78/17
COMMENT: The solar activity was at very low levels for the UT
day, 28 September. Few B-class flares were observed during the
last 24 hours. The two day outlook (29-30 September) is for very
low solar activity with chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The
solar wind speeds were at very high levels throughout the UT
day, ranging between 600 km/s and 800 km/s. The current solar
wind speed (28/2300 UT) is around 700 km/s. These enhanced in
the solar wind speeds are due to the high speed streams emanating
from a large positive polarity coronal hole. The north south
component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated
between -7 and +7 nT, with no prolonged periods of significant
southward Bz. Bt had been steady near 7 nT for most of the UT
day. The two day outlook (29-30 September) is for the solar winds
to remain at these enhanced levels as the coronal effects are
expected to persist for few more days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Sep : A K
Australian Region 23 33255343
Cocos Island 17 33234442
Darwin 18 33245332
Townsville 22 33255333
Learmonth 26 33255452
Alice Springs 21 33255332
Norfolk Island 18 33254233
Gingin 30 33255553
Camden 22 33255333
Canberra 17 33244333
Launceston 25 33255443
Hobart 23 33255433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Sep :
Macquarie Island 54 44366753
Casey 27 45543343
Mawson 74 45654586
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 17 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 85 (Minor storm)
Canberra 97 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 45
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 32 5445 4633
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Sep 45 Minor Storm
30 Sep 40 Minor Storm
01 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity over the Australian region
reached minor storm levels on UT day 28 September. The Australian
region Dst index dipped to a low of -68 nT at near 28/0200 UT.
These fluctuations in geomagnetic conditions are associated with
very strong solar wind speeds in excess of 600 km/s emanating
from a large positive polarity coronal hole now at geoeffective
location on the solar disk . The two day outlook (29-30 September)
is for the geomagnetic activity to reach minor storm levels and
at times even reach major storm levels associated with the persisting
very strong solar wind speeds from the coronal hole. The storm
intensities are expected to be slightly stronger than that observed
in the previous two rotation (previous rotation Ap was 32) associated
with this coronal hole because the earth-sun coupling efficiency
is highest during the equinox periods. Thus there is strong chance
that aurora may be visible on the local nights of 29 September
from Tasmania and some parts of Victoria, Australia.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Fair-poor Poor
30 Sep Normal Fair-poor Poor
01 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were near predicted monthly values over
the equatorial regions and strongly depressed in the mid and
high latitudes regions. Similar HF conditions are expected today,
29 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 29
Sep 35
Oct 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Sep 0 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
30 Sep 5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
01 Oct 3 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Observed MUF's were strongly depressed over most Australian
regions throughout the UT day 28 September. These depression
are associated with the observed minor storm conditions driven
by a very large positive polarity coronal hole. Similar MUF depressions
are expected for the next three days (29 September to 1 October)
as active conditions associated with the coronal hole are expected
to persist for a few more days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 341000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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